“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
–Sun Tzu (544-496 BC)
We are at the throes of war after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and unless the West acquiesces to Russia’s PM, Mr Putin’s ultimatum and de facto acquisition of all of Eastern Ukraine — we might see a thermonuclear exchange soonest.
As it stands now — a global high-tech war of attrition will follow the establishment of fresh sanctions that perhaps unavoidably will have important, and perhaps historic consequences globally, but we might escape the nuclear winter.
Yet on the ground the map has changed and now the compass bearings of the Cartographers and Navigators have shifted, so that there are many majorities and minority members of the Russian, Ukrainian, Greek, Pontic, Armenian and even Turkic diaspora in the conflict zones of Ukraine, where many have already left their homes in the two main break-away oblasts of Eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, and even from the capital city Kiev and its environs…
So things and “shift” have hit the proverbial fan in Ukraine but that might not be the end game of it all…
Because we tend to forget what is mainly at stake in this Ukrainian / Russian conflict and the resultant crisis, is the sense of Solidarity for the rules based framework of the defense of the Western Liberal Democracies, when faced with the use of violence in Europe.
Because when viewed through such a lens, this could also highlight the potential conflict zones between the EU and the Islamic Turkey putsch-zone of influence marred by the threatens of violence by Turkey’s strongman Mr Tayyip Erdogan who envisions “taking over” again the Balkans and Vienna, as the rest of Europe helplessly watches him fulfill the dreams of many Ottoman sultans before him in the name of the prophet’s jihad.
The widespread belief is that the Turkish leader is not bluffing, with most disagreements focusing on the extent of his plans or the tools used to accomplish them, now that Russia’s strategic goal is deemed to be successful and its international recognition as an equal partner in a new European security framework – in contrast to its former role as the defeated “pariah,” which the West thrust upon it after the end of the Cold War is the new Status Quo.
The current crisis highlights the unwillingness & the inability of the United States, NATO and the EU to deter, or even efficiently react to the use of force – outside its borders and perhaps even if it is over countries inside the Alliance.
So now after the current readjustment of the balance of power in Europe — all of the EU and especially the Balkans and also Austria, Czech and Slovak republics, must be flexible in their moves and act swiftly and strongly with their own interests at heart — not against Russia, but against the Turkic invasion that has already been building up to a crescendo of a few million people over the past few years.
Because up to now, the subdued public discourse regarding our “position” on Ukraine and its possible ramifications point to a permanent state of indecision marked by our notorious “wait and see” attitude in all Realpolitik situations.
However, the circumstances call for immediate, “acrobatic” maneuvers, weaving between alliance obligations, European deterrence and traditionally important relations with Moscow as a counterweight to China.
The most common analytical framework focuses on the role of the new American Eastern objectives through the reassessments hastily convened now that the image of NATO and the US has significantly shrunk since Russia took over the Eastern Ukrainian oblasts.
But what is really at stake for World Peace is something else entirely, because a country that consistently calls on the principles of solidarity and mutual defense must manifestly prove that it honors its obligations to other member-states of the European Union and NATO — which Ukraine is not, but it also protects the nations that seek to enter into the alliance.
At the same time, this situation has created the right conditions for the opportunity to set mutual support mechanisms in motion — primarily from the countries of the Balkans, Eastern Europe and Central Europe as a prerequisite against all threats by any aggressive “neighbor” and the Gazis emanating from the Islamic East as another Axis of Evil.
We must therefore utilize this rare confluence of events in parallel with the push for European strategic autonomy, the Strategic Compass, and other mechanisms in order to achieve an explicit and effective guarantee of mutual support against all forms of external attack, because internationals and national security must be the only indivisible shield – for all the EU member states and it ought to be the “S.H.I.E.L.D.” running the entire length of the European Union’s external borders.
Any statement, contribution or sanction that we collectively shape now in this framework — ought to be linked with equivalent solidarity in deterrence, sanctions and mutual defense vis-a-vis Turkey’s ambitions to enter into another era of Islamic conquest and expansion towards the Heart of Europe and the Western Civilization.
Today as we accept the new map of Ukraine — the most appropriate manifestation of our central stance on the matter could be a symbolic contribution to aid Bulgaria and the Balkans as well as the Black Sea shipping corridor, where a wise show of solidarity could be, to evacuate Ukraine’s refugee community by sea. Because if it comes to open conflict, the large international community of central eastern Ukraine will most likely find itself stuck in the middle of the crossfire.
Above all else, our overall approach must be to delve into the international precedents that are created by a widespread open conflict and the preparation of the Liberal Western Democracies’ ability to cajole, engage and even confront both armed and unarmed invaders – irrespective of specific differences religious affiliations and/or national affinities.
It is necessary to consider the worrying trend of Islamic Prime Minister of Turkey Mr Erdogan’s imitating the modus operandi of his Russian counterpart albeit without any of the national heritage, historical continuity, nor social, and certainly not ethnic justification.
Yet, we can easily see that Mr Erdogan’s belief that the ongoing shift of World Hegemony from the United States to China, creates the reassessment of polarization and power balance and certainly it is a step movement from a unipolar to a multipolar world that is the opposite of pax Americana and thus is seen as creating new opportunities for those wishing to create chaos, havoc and murder, like all jihadists always do.
This is why the Turkish despots have heavily invested in their country’s military strength – especially against weaker states, and have injured all of their neighbors. After all, they lean toward a virulent form of Islamic Theocracy and political autocracy and therefore treat the West as “arrogant”, “loud” and, ultimately rather “soft” and effeminate — not to be seen as capable of mounting any sort of military response to their religious expansionism of the prophet’s faith and sword.
Obviously Turkey’s PM, Mr Erdogan and his allies, are certain that the West will back down in the face of any threatening ultimatums and will avoid any military responses to an invasion against one of its member states, out of fear of human losses and the damage that will be done to Western economies. It is also useful here to include Europe’s reliance on energy from Russia and Turkey’s use of migratory human flows and energy pipelines as a threat.
The Dictator of Turkey feels that the confluence of events is favorable as he believes that he can win big, with only a small risk. And that is why he always puts forward excessive demands, counting on the fact that a potential rejection of their demands paves the way for an armed invasion to suit his needs — marking himself as a great Sultan of a resurgent Ottoman empire, rather than a good Prime Minister of a secular republic of Turkey.
Always knowing that the winner on the field of battle will fully impose his onerous terms — his strategic goals are even more destabilizing. He want to restore his ancient regime, that of the Ottoman empire — whose loss his predecessors were forced to accept by the Western invaders a century ago.
The very fact that Mr Erdogan is both impatient to complete his perceived manifest destiny, and desperate for immediate “results” due to his advanced age — makes him the perfect foil for a Swan Song ballerina, and the sad part of this tale of woes is that he has got no capacity of humor to understand his situation and how foolish and even funny his actions seem to a disinterested observer…
For the U.S. it must appear that Mr Erdogan’s pretense of imitating Mr Putin adds a completely different dimension to the precedent created by the Ukrainian conflict, and one that should be considered at length, because and despite their obvious differences, the similarity between the Russian method of sending ultimatums and then occupying a vast territory of a neighboring state that is mostly comprised of his own Russian people — is not the same with that of Erdogan vis-a-vis Greece and the Republic of Cyprus, that are diametrically different than the populations of Turkey.
Yet this inability to perceive the logical fallacy of Mr Erdogan’s demands and those of his Islamic generals is particularly worrisome now that the other shoe has dropped on Ukraine.
Of course — every conflict, every click of the compass difference in nationhood, every war, and every crisis by its very nature creates dangers, but it also creates vast opportunities for those that wish to exploit chaos and carnage.
And because history rewards those who take precautions, who have a solid plan, and who have the bold vision and the Godly Courage that is necessary in order to punish those who rely on improvisation — we must simply plan for the other shoe to drop in the Balkans as well.
Hope that the US government and the State Department as well as the Pentagon will consider all this by carefully examining the evidence and then drawing the proper conclusions that will allow them to act with ambitious caution and precautionary planning, thus decisively stop the invaders by a show of strength and thereby promoting the greatest Public Good — Peace and Prosperity for all.
But to do all that requires a pair of brass-balls and courage in the old ticker and methinks that the Old Europe has lost all that same as the current US leadership and therefore all small and ancient countries must tread at their own risk.
After all — a True Leader knows that nobody else will protect you except yourself.
Good Luck my friends and God Speed.